Sciences & Technology
Chocolate that brings joy to your gut health and your tastebuds
Q&A: Is the world really running out of chocolate?
Climate change and disease have ravaged cacao crops for years, impacting chocolate production. Although our cacao alternatives are getting better, is it enough to fill the gap?
Published 2 April 2026
Chocolate prices have jumped again this Easter, and it has a lot of people concerned about how much higher they can go – and why they are so high in the first place.
There are plenty of reasons for the hikes – whether it’s rising oil and transport prices or general cost-of-living increases – but if we look at the ingredients, there is a clear culprit.
Cocoa, made from the cacao plant, is the main ingredient that is used to make cocoa butter and cocoa powder for chocolate production.
Climate-driven impacts and crop diseases have led to volatile production over the last few years, mainly in West Africa, which produces over 70 per cent of the world’s cacao beans.
Although losses have steadied slightly, the market's vulnerability to climate change is clear, as is its direct impact on our supermarket shelves.
So just how concerned should we be about our precious chocolate supply?
Q: What’s going on with cacao production?
Cocoa is produced in three main regions: West Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia.
By 2050, climate change is projected to significantly disrupt global cocoa production, through a combination of rising temperatures, altered rainfall patterns and increased pest and disease pressures – but these impacts will vary by region.
In West Africa, suitable land area may be reduced by as much as 50 per cent, with yield declines by up to 12 per cent, primarily driven by extreme heat days, more erratic rainfall and higher plant viral infections.
In Southeast Asia, increased rainfall intensity and flooding are leading to harvest failures and soil degradation, and as much as 20 per cent of Colombia’s cocoa-growing areas could be lost by 2050.
All of this is to say – global cocoa supply remains at risk. Particularly as smallholder farmers, who dominate the sector, often lack the resources to implement necessary adaptations.
Q: What makes cacao so unique?
Remember the classic M&M advertising slogan “melts in your mouth, not in your hands”? Well, that’s a great summary of what makes cacao, or more specifically cocoa butter, so unique.
Cocoa butter has a unique triglyceride (fats/oils) composition, which sets it apart from almost all naturally occurring plant oils.
This rare composition results in a very sharp melting point. Solid at room temperature (20-24 degrees Celsius) but melts very quickly at body temperature (34-36 degrees Celsius).
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During the chocolate production process, cocoa butter undergoes a tempering process – heating and subsequent cooling – to form specific cocoa butter crystals that give chocolate a brilliant glossy shine and trademark ‘snap’ – that recognisable sound of breaking a piece of chocolate in half.
Improper tempering can lead to chocolate blooming, also known as ‘dusty chocolate’.
This is when temperature fluctuations cause the oil or fat in chocolate to recrystallise, resulting in whitish spots. But don’t worry – blooming chocolate won’t make you sick, though it may have a slightly powdery texture.
All of these characteristics are what make chocolate, well, chocolate. And it’s very hard to replicate.
Q: What are some of the cacao alternatives for chocolate-making?
There are three kinds of alternatives for cocoa butter.
Cocoa butter substitute (CBS), cocoa butter replacement (CBR) and cocoa butter equivalent (CBE). CBEs have a similar triglyceride composition to cocoa butter, so they are the best (and most expensive) alternative we have.
CBR and CBS are often used in compound chocolate, which is considered lower quality than the ‘real’ chocolate produced from cocoa butter. You might find these used for chocolate coatings on cakes, biscuits or waffles.
At the University of Melbourne, we’ve been exploring new ways to create CBE, using ingredients that can replicate the unique texture and melting properties of cocoa butter.
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This work is now moving out of the laboratory, where we are testing how to produce these CBE at scale in a way that’s both affordable and sustainable.
The goal is to provide reliable alternatives that maintain quality while reducing cost and supply constraints.
Q: So, are we really running out of chocolate?
There’s no need to panic just yet – we aren’t running out of chocolate.
There is great potential for adaptation in the global cocoa industry through altitudinal shifts, agroforestry and breeding more resilient varieties.
Our research is also exploring how cocoa butter equivalents can replicate the unique melting profile, structure and mouthfeel that are critical to chocolate quality.
And in the meantime, plant-based twists on chocolate are popping up in Europe and the UK.
Some of them use carob and chickpeas, others use fava beans, and even ground sunflower and pumpkin seeds are being tested as a cacao replacement.
The jury is still out on how well they can mimic their cacao-based counterparts – but at the end of the day, chocolate is still chocolate (even if it’s not, technically, chocolate).