Q&A: What the fall of Assad means for Syria

After what may have seemed like a lightning offensive, rebel forces led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have toppled the 50-year-long Assad regime in Syria.

Over the last week, the Islamist-led rebels captured cities including Aleppo, Hama, Homs and finally Damascus – meeting with little to no resistance.

While there have been scenes of celebration at the dramatic overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, there are questions about the future of the country after more than a decade of civil war.

We asked Derek McDougall, Professorial Fellow in the School of Social and Political Sciences and a research affiliate in the Peacebuilding Initiative, for his analysis.

Q. The Syrian capital, Damascus, has fallen to opposition forces, what does this mean for the country?

The collapse of the Assad government and the fall of Damascus indicate fragmentation in Syria. There is no force capable of exercising governmental authority throughout the country. ‘Sunni opposition forces’ suggests unity where there is none.

The main rebel force is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist group based in northwest Syria, with its stronghold in Idlib.

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HTS is a listed terrorist group in many Western countries and was originally linked to Al-Qaeda. It has since tried to modify its image, but whether it can work effectively with other groups is uncertain.

HTS was not the group occupying Damascus, a Sunni group based in southern Syria had this role. And while Sunnis are an estimated three-quarters of the Syrian population, this group is not unified.

Assad “held the ring” because of his ability to win support from other groups including Shia, Christians, and disaffected Sunnis beyond his own Alawite group, albeit with authoritarian methods but upholding secular norms.

Apart from HTS in northwest Syria, Turkey occupied some border regions, while also trying to contain the Kurds in northeast Syria. Turkey also played a key role in pushing HTS to advance in northern Syria.

The United States has a small base at Al-Tanf in the Syrian desert (near the intersecting borders of Syria, Iraq and Jordan), trying to limit any revival by the Sunni Islamic extremist group, Islamic State. This also has implications for the conflict between Israel and Iran.

Assad never had authority over the whole country, and the post-Assad situation is likely to be even more fragmented.

Q. The Syrian civil war has been ongoing for 13 years, is this coup likely to bring peace?

In 2015, the United Nations brokered an agreement that provided for a transition to constitutional government with the involvement of key groups. However, the inability of those groups to work together made the agreement ineffective.

There could be attempts to revive the agreement but overcoming the current fragmentation and hostility among these groups is highly unlikely. The conflict is likely to continue, with even more fragmentation in Syria.

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The conflict among the Syrian groups is exacerbated by the involvement of external powers and other forces.

Both Russia and Iran have experienced a strategic setback but will continue to try to influence the situation through Syrian groups judged as friendly. And Russia will try to hang on to its Mediterranean naval base.

Turkey has been the de facto backer of HTS and will try to expand its influence. Israel will also be active, seeing the emerging situation as an opportunity to weaken Iran and further weaken Hezbollah while also remaining mindful that it borders Syria.

US President-elect Donald Trump has said the US should stay out of this conflict, but the country is already involved through the Al-Tanf base and support for Kurdish-led forces in the region.

Q. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia, ending the family’s 50-year rule, what implication does his departure have for Syria?

Assad and his father before him had an approach to governing Syria that involved bringing together several groups, with the Alawites as the core group to which the Assads belonged.

That approach largely succeeded for some fifty years, but in the end, the coalition collapsed in the face of determined and hostile minorities, taking advantage of weakening involvement by Russia and Iran as Assad’s key external allies.

It remains to be seen whether an alternative domestic coalition can be constructed, but I am doubtful. Sadly, fragmentation and continuing conflict are the more likely outcomes.

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Q. Assad’s allies are preoccupied by other conflicts – Russia with its war in Ukraine, while Hezbollah and Hamas remain in conflict with Israel – did this allow opposition forces to move so quickly?

Support from external powers and other groups was secondary to the way the Assad government functioned within Syria.

Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Shiite political movement with its own militia, gave Assad a useful ally in Lebanon, a significant country for Syria (and historically part of Greater Syria during Ottoman rule).

However, it would be an exaggeration to say that Hezbollah played a fundamental role in upholding Assad. The Palestinian militant group, Hamas, was a regional ally in some respects but not significant for the dynamics within Syria.

Syria was helpful in Russia’s attempt to play a greater role in the Middle East, working with Iran in this respect. Ukraine has been a distraction for Russia’s wider international role, but Assad didn’t depend on Russia for his survival, although Russian support was clearly helpful.

It appears that HTS judged that Assad was in a weak position and moved quickly.

Facing insignificant opposition, it just kept going, with other anti-Assad groups then joining in.

Q. Many Syrians are celebrating – but there remain questions about the future of the wider region.

I suspect that the euphoria we’ve seen in some images will soon evaporate when the reality of the post-Assad succession sinks in. It seems reminiscent of images coming out of Iraq when then-US President George W. Bush prematurely announced ‘victory’ in 2003.

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With continuing conflict in Syria, the country could be seen as a ‘vacuum’ with various countries and other groups vying for influence.

As noted, Russia and Iran have been weakened but will continue to try to have an influence. Turkey appears to be intent on expanding its influence, partly to contain the Kurds, but also in the context of its perceived role as a regional power.

Israel, thinking of its conflict with Iran, stands to gain from the emerging situation, but at the cost of having a quagmire on its doorstep.

Saudi Arabia is another regional power affected by the new situation. It might see opportunities for expanding its influence in Syria, given the setback for Iran.

But what is Saudi Arabia likely to make of the strategic gains made by Turkey and Israel, and is it prepared to work with a group like HTS?

Syrian people, both at home and refugees abroad, will be watching, waiting and hoping for stability and peace in a country that has endured so much conflict, but the prospects at this point are not good.