Discussion & Debate
‘I am watching the US enthusiastically leap into an authoritarian regime’
Why Germany’s far right is a problem even if the ‘firewall’ holds
The rapid rise of the far-right party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) and its influence on the agenda of other parties will define German politics for the next four years
Published 25 February 2025
The rise of the far-right party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) was predicted to be the main story of the recent German elections.
And it is. Despite the fact that the AfD will not be part of the new government, the party did emerge as the election’s ‘winner’ after doubling its support.
One in five Germans, many from the old East Germany, voted for its anti-Islam, anti-immigration platform. It was also popular with 21 per cent of voters under 25, 34 per cent of the jobless and 38 per cent of blue-collar workers.
The speed of the AfD’s rise and its influence on the agenda of other parties will define German politics for the next four years.
Disenchanted voters
The result reflects the global trend of protest votes fueling the rise of right-wing parties. This shift makes politics more unstable, complicating efforts to tackle the structural issues driving voter dissatisfaction in the first place.
Disenchanted voters largely defected from the parties that formed the previous ‘traffic light’ coalition, named after the colours of its three partners.
The ‘red’ Social Democrats (SPD) — the senior coalition partner — saw its vote decline from 25 per cent to a projected 16 per cent.
The Greens and ‘yellow’ Liberals (FDP) also lost votes. The projected Greens vote has dropped to around 11 per cent and the Liberals failed to pass the ‘five per cent hurdle’ required to qualify for seats.
The conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its southern partner the Christian Social Union (CSU) received the highest vote (28 per cent, together) recovering from their historical low in 2021.
The AfD received the next highest share, raising its vote from 11 per cent to a projected 20 per cent – the highest for a far-right party since National Socialism.
Lengthy negotiations
Germany’s Parliament is proportionally elected, creating a multi-party system. After an election, parties will negotiate for weeks – sometimes months – to agree on the laws that they will pass and the compromises they will make.
With memories of National Socialism seared into Germany’s political memory, it has long been an accepted norm that mainstream parties will refuse to partner with the far right, limiting its influence.
It appears that this ‘firewall against the far right’ will formally hold in the upcoming coalition negotiations, with the CDU/CSU ruling out forming a coalition with the AfD.
The most likely outcome will be a return of a ‘Grand Coalition’ – CDU/CSU and SPD – which last governed during the Angela Merkel era. Paradoxically, though, the exclusion of the AfD from government is likely to fuel popular support for it.
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Support for political parties other than the two largest grew in the 2021 elections, encouraging strange ideological bedfellows to form a coalition. The SPD and Green parties were more natural allies.
The Liberals, in contrast, favoured free markets and limiting state invention. They insisted on controlling the finance ministry as a condition of joining the coalition. This would prove the coalition’s fatal structural weakness.
Before Russia invaded Ukraine, Germany relied upon Russia for more than half of its supply of gas. After Germany opposed the war against Ukraine, that supply was threatened. This required heavy government spending to subsidise heating.
Climate policy was also a core tension. A 2021 German Constitutional Court decision forced the government to invest in the green transition, to which the Liberals were a reluctant party.
The coalition partners also clashed over the ‘debt brake’ – a constitutional provision that limits government borrowing. The coalition ultimately collapsed in November, on the day that Trump was elected in the US.
Leaked documents suggest that the Liberals had been planning to cause that collapse for several months, in the hope of benefitting politically.
A move that backfired spectacularly, as the Liberals failed to gain the minimum five per cent of votes necessary to re-enter Parliament at all, let alone the government. Former leader Christian Lindner has announced his resignation from politics.
Protest parties from the former East
Political infighting aside, the traffic light coalition’s popularity plummeted as it failed to respond effectively to multiple crises. Chronic failure to invest in infrastructure has also left Germany ill-equipped to adapt its economy, which is now in recession.
Parties that represented a protest vote against the coalition experienced a surge in support.
The AfD emerged in 2013 as a Euro-sceptic party, rising to prominence in the former East.
East Germany remains one of the least industrialised regions of Europe and continues to experience disadvantage relative to the West.
The AfD has since transformed into a nativist party largely focused on anti-migration and gained traction outside the East. Its key policy involves mass deportation or the ‘remigration’ of people with a migrant background.
Although those experiencing financial hardship were most likely to vote for the AfD, it favours free markets. Support for the AfD is strongest outside cities, especially in rural areas with less migrants.
Constitutional law experts have suggested the AfD could be potentially banned under the Constitution because its policies violate core democratic values. One of its leaders has been repeatedly fined for using Nazi slogans.
‘The Left’ has also benefitted from the protest vote. A democratic socialist party that split from the left flank of the SPD, the Left’s heartland is also former East Germany.
It increased its vote share to a projected seven per cent and its membership is at a historical high, galvanised by the end of the in-fighting during the Wagenknecht era and the rise of new party leadership, including Heidi Reichinnek, whose fiery speech in the Bundestag denouncing right-wing politics went broadly viral.
Interestingly, Sunday’s election experienced the highest voter turnout in decades. Over 1.8 million of those who didn’t vote in 2021 voted for the AfD.
The Left and the AfD are also the most popular parties amongst voters under 25 – the Greens’ traditional base. For all sides of politics, this felt like a critical moment.
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No return to the Grand Coalition of the Merkel era
The most likely new government is a return of the ‘Grand Coalition’ of CDU/CSU and SPD. This last governed during the Merkel era but a returned ‘Grand Coalition’ would be a different kind of government.
Friedrich Merz, the likely new Chancellor, is more conservative than Merkel – especially on migration. The SPD has also turned towards the right on migration, similarly framing it as a national security issue.
A new Grand Coalition would be more stable than the previous government, but it will be hard for the CDU to continue to chase the far-right protest vote. It will also be easy for the AfD to blame the government and profit from its haemorrhaging support.
Support for Ukraine has become increasingly important after Trump’s withdrawal of US funding and weapons, and climate policy continues to be urgent and required for constitutional reasons.
Both require big spending, but constitutional restrictions on borrowing will constrain the government. The AfD and the Left now control more than a third majority in Parliament, which can block any constitutional amendment.
A return to a Grand Coalition will be no retreat to the stability of the Merkel era. Not least because of the AfD waiting in the wings.
All eyes are on 2029, when the fate of the democratic middle in Germany will truly be decided.